Why Canada faces a doctor shortage in 2026
A crisis years in the making
Canada’s shortage of family doctors has become impossible to ignore. Millions of Canadians report difficulty finding a regular primary-care provider, and those who do have one are often waiting weeks for routine appointments. A large national survey (OurCare, summarized in CMAJ) reported about 6.5 million Canadians without a regular family doctor or nurse practitioner, roughly 1 in 5 adults, a sharp increase from 2019. Behind the headline number are structural forces: an aging physician workforce, uneven distribution, population growth, and administrative burdens that siphon time away from patient care. CIHI’s 2023 profile counts 97,384 physicians nationally (243 per 100,000 people), with only 7% practising in rural areas; the average physician age is 49, indicators of both maldistribution and looming retirements.
Four drivers of the shortage
- Demographics & retirement. A large cohort of physicians is nearing retirement. While the overall supply inches up, departures and reduced hours offset gains. CIHI’s current workforce snapshot underlines the pressure and notes that family medicine numbers were flat to slightly negative year-over-year, while specialists drove recent growth.
- Urban concentration & rural gaps. With 7% of physicians in rural areas and 93% in urban centers, many communities lack timely access to primary care. Geography becomes destiny without virtual access or incentives to redistribute services.
- Population growth outpacing capacity. Canada added ~1.27 million people in 2023, a 3.2% increase the fastest growth in 66 years largely driven by international migration. Even if training pipelines expand, demand is rising faster than capacity.
- Burnout & administrative load. The Canadian Medical Association has repeatedly highlighted the “admin tax” on clinicians. In 2024 the CMA called for eliminating low-value paperwork (like sick notes) and improving record connectivity so doctors spend more time with patients.
What this looks like for patients
When people can’t access primary care, they improvise using walk-ins, ERs, or the internet. A CMA/Abacus Data poll reported 37% of Canadians resorted to online medical advice because they couldn’t access a clinician when they needed help. CIHI estimates 15% (about 1 in 7) emergency department visits (Apr 2023–Mar 2024) involved conditions that could have been managed in primary care, signalling upstream access gaps.
Where virtual coordination fits
Virtual care isn’t a pandemic stopgap; it’s part of the new normal. CIHI reports 1 in 3 Canadians received primary care virtually in the past year via secure video, phone, or messaging helping shrink geography and scheduling barriers. Refua’s role is deliberately focused: we coordinate virtual, video-based medical checkups for Ontario
patients, using PHIPA-compliant software to (1) capture a mandatory medical release so clinicians can see relevant history, and (2) expose real-time appointment availability via API. That combination removes common friction, paperwork, phone-tag scheduling, and siloed records that otherwise delay care.